My apologies for the delay in updates - I am back now after grading + vacation!

Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 09 2021 9720 43060 308 87 538 720
January 10 2021 9789 43265 310 87 530 725
January 11 2021 9809 43387 311 87 514 720
January 12 2021 9856 43469 312 88 561 738
January 13 2021 9921 43619 315 89 546 739
January 14 2021 9981 43753 315 90 554 722
January 15 2021 10022 43871 318 91 558 727
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 3.0 6.8% 38 0.33% 48 0.42%
10-19 6 6.7 13.3% 74 0.54% 84 0.62%
20-29 8 10.6 23.5% 131 0.63% 181 0.86%
30-39 7 6.1 12.5% 70 0.51% 100 0.74%
40-49 5 5.7 11.5% 64 0.61% 74 0.71%
50-59 5 8.0 14.7% 82 0.65% 103 0.82%
60-69 6 5.1 11.3% 63 0.55% 78 0.68%
70+ 1 3.3 6.5% 36 0.34% 59 0.56%
All ages 41 48.6 100% 558 0.53% 727 0.69%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 09 2021 6227 25555 181 70 388 494
January 10 2021 6264 25622 181 70 362 479
January 11 2021 6295 25658 182 70 372 498
January 12 2021 6343 25700 183 70 420 529
January 13 2021 6355 25787 187 72 383 516
January 14 2021 6429 25852 190 72 425 527
January 15 2021 6454 25934 192 72 439 531
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 2.7 7.1% 31 0.4% 39 0.5%
10-19 4 3.9 9.1% 40 0.48% 47 0.56%
20-29 3 6.0 16.4% 72 1.01% 88 1.24%
30-39 3 6.6 16.4% 72 0.86% 80 0.95%
40-49 2 6.4 14.8% 65 0.84% 72 0.93%
50-59 7 5.7 13.9% 61 0.63% 80 0.82%
60-69 3 4.4 12.5% 55 0.65% 65 0.77%
70+ 1 4.0 9.8% 43 0.6% 60 0.84%
All ages 25 39.7 100% 439 0.68% 531 0.82%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 09 2021 4705 17124 197 58 270 339
January 10 2021 4724 17167 197 58 252 331
January 11 2021 4737 17185 197 58 230 339
January 12 2021 4760 17199 200 58 247 356
January 13 2021 4772 17246 200 61 238 337
January 14 2021 4805 17313 201 61 256 333
January 15 2021 4840 17360 204 63 273 333
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 1.0 5.1% 14 0.26% 19 0.35%
10-19 8 2.7 11.4% 31 0.57% 34 0.63%
20-29 2 2.6 12.1% 33 0.73% 40 0.88%
30-39 6 3.7 13.9% 38 0.7% 49 0.9%
40-49 5 3.1 16.5% 45 0.9% 52 1.04%
50-59 7 4.3 15.4% 42 0.62% 60 0.88%
60-69 2 2.6 12.8% 35 0.55% 38 0.6%
70+ 4 3.0 12.8% 35 0.55% 41 0.65%
All ages 35 23.0 100% 273 0.6% 333 0.74%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 09 2021 10691 46395 260 63 697 916
January 10 2021 10717 46480 262 63 592 886
January 11 2021 10775 46568 263 63 617 908
January 12 2021 10817 46739 266 64 657 908
January 13 2021 10902 46893 272 64 673 908
January 14 2021 10927 47025 274 64 620 802
January 15 2021 10960 47154 280 65 574 802
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 5 2.3 5.1% 29 0.25% 47 0.4%
10-19 2 4.0 8.9% 51 0.31% 83 0.5%
20-29 6 10.3 21.6% 124 0.58% 175 0.82%
30-39 6 10.6 19.7% 113 0.83% 137 1.01%
40-49 5 8.6 13.6% 78 0.57% 112 0.82%
50-59 4 5.6 11% 63 0.44% 91 0.64%
60-69 2 6.0 10.5% 60 0.42% 74 0.52%
70+ 3 5.1 9.8% 56 0.43% 83 0.64%
All ages 33 52.4 100% 574 0.49% 802 0.68%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 09 2021 35189 298198 1052 211 2233 2814
January 10 2021 35391 298787 1055 211 2078 2836
January 11 2021 35526 299345 1058 211 1987 2805
January 12 2021 35633 299369 1061 214 2094 2843
January 13 2021 35743 299432 1068 214 1936 2787
January 14 2021 35987 300080 1072 218 1974 2674
January 15 2021 36126 300769 1076 218 1984 2587
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 11 9.9 5.4% 108 0.18% 141 0.23%
10-19 20 21.4 12.7% 251 0.35% 324 0.46%
20-29 36 38.1 27% 536 0.52% 668 0.64%
30-39 18 25.1 16.9% 336 0.44% 438 0.57%
40-49 21 23.6 14.7% 291 0.44% 382 0.58%
50-59 22 22.4 12.4% 246 0.37% 324 0.49%
60-69 3 11.0 6.3% 125 0.23% 171 0.31%
70+ 8 8.1 4.6% 91 0.18% 139 0.28%
All ages 139 159.7 100% 1984 0.36% 2587 0.47%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 09 2021 505058 2396106 22326 5155 27766 36527
January 10 2021 506890 2401736 22378 5157 25788 36072
January 11 2021 508346 2405734 22434 5162 25339 36193
January 12 2021 511136 2409580 22583 5211 27051 36599
January 13 2021 513270 2414873 22705 5248 26739 35978
January 14 2021 515982 2421860 22804 5290 28044 34880
January 15 2021 518251 2427631 22923 5322 26910 35244
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 127 131.7 5.4% 1454 0.23% 1917 0.3%
10-19 282 269.4 11.9% 3205 0.42% 4175 0.55%
20-29 391 413.6 17.9% 4816 0.64% 6182 0.82%
30-39 337 351.4 15.4% 4134 0.55% 5454 0.72%
40-49 296 322.9 14.2% 3812 0.55% 4967 0.71%
50-59 372 346.4 14.8% 3986 0.49% 5205 0.64%
60-69 256 255.7 10.9% 2938 0.39% 3876 0.51%
70+ 208 229.0 9.5% 2565 0.4% 3468 0.54%
All ages 2269 2319.9 100% 26910 0.46% 35244 0.61%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
69.5 61.7 86.5 48.6 48.3 25%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
82.1 39.7 29.6 39%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
73.6 23 21.6 37.5%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
67.8 50.1 82.2 52.4 62.9 29.8%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
47.3 45.6 64.3 159.7 184.6 26.4%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
60.5 55.2 81.7 2319.9 2255 30.4%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

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Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.59 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-05 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4659"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red